Paul Alaje, a financial analyst and Chief Economist at SPM Professionals, has predicted that petrol prices in Nigeria could fall to between ₦650 and ₦800 per litre if the ongoing price war between Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) continues.

Speaking in an interview on Channels Television, monitored by DAILY POST on Tuesday, Alaje highlighted the risks of the competition slowing down, emphasizing that the coexistence of both entities benefits Nigerians.

Competition Will Drive Prices Down

Reacting to the recent petrol price cuts by both NNPCL and Dangote Refinery, Alaje explained that increased competition would force prices lower, as capitalists prioritize profit-making. However, he warned that a price-fixing agreement between the two giants could limit consumer choice.

“If there is more competition, they will keep reducing petrol prices. Nigerians should be happy with their disagreement. Once there is an agreement, they can fix prices, leaving consumers with no options,” he said.

The Danger of Losing a Key Player

Alaje cautioned that if either NNPCL or Dangote Refinery collapses, Nigerians could face severe economic consequences. He stressed the urgent need for more refineries to enhance competition and stabilize fuel prices.

“The danger is that if NNPCL fizzles out, you’ll be dealing with a pure capitalist, and you don’t want to know the implication. If Dangote Refinery stops, we are back to square one. We need more players in the market,” he warned.

Petrol Prices Could Skyrocket Again

He further noted that Nigerians should expect fuel prices between ₦650 and ₦800 per litre due to the ongoing competition. However, if either NNPCL or Dangote Refinery exits the market, prices could surge beyond ₦1,000 per litre.

This latest price war between NNPCL and Dangote Refinery has sparked fresh discussions on the future of Nigeria’s fuel market, with consumers closely watching how competition will shape fuel affordability in the coming months.