The recent findings from the International Rescue Committee (IRC) paint a deeply concerning picture for Nigeria and its neighboring regions in West and Central Africa.

According to the latest report, an alarming 16 percent of Nigerians are projected to grapple with severe food insecurity and extreme hunger between June and August 2024. This figure marks a distressing increase from the previous year, underscoring a worsening trend in living conditions across the region.

The report highlights a staggering total of 52 million individuals in West and Central Africa who are at risk of food insecurity during this critical period, known as the lean season. In Nigeria alone, approximately 32 million people—equivalent to 16 percent of the population—are expected to face severe hunger, reaching crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity.

The report said: “Looking ahead, the projected outlook for the period June-August 2024 appears even more severe.

“Nearly 52 million people across the 17 analysed countries are anticipated to face phases three to five during the lean season of June-August. This translates to 12 percent of the analysed population struggling to meet their basic food and nutrition requirements.

“These countries include Mauritania (656 652, 14 percent), Burkina Faso (2 734 196, 12 percent), Niger (3 436,892, 13 percent), Chad (3,364,453, 20 percent), Sierra Leone (1,569,895, 20 percent), and Nigeria (31,758,164, 16 percent).”

The recent report highlights a looming crisis of acute malnutrition, particularly in Sokoto and Zamfara states in northern Nigeria, where over 15 percent of children are affected. Factors such as insecurity, climate change, and economic challenges, notably inflation, exacerbate the food insecurity across the Sahel region.

In January 2024, the inflation rate in the region rose to 21 percent from 18 percent in the previous year. The World Bank's forecast predicts severe food security issues in seven northern states due to food inflation and insecurity, stemming from conflicts like the Boko Haram insurgency in the Northeast and farmer-herder clashes and banditry in the Northwest and North Central regions.

Insecurity and disruptions in global food supply chains have driven Nigeria's food inflation to approximately 40.01 percent in March. Despite Nigeria's significant oil production and large population, a staggering 84 million people, or 37 percent of the population, live below the poverty line.

Reports from the World Food Programme (WFP) corroborate the IRC's findings, indicating that insurgent activities worsen resource scarcity, insecurity, and food insecurity, especially for vulnerable women and children.

Concerns are mounting among Nigerians, with fears that the projected crisis may become a reality. While some anticipate worse conditions in the North Central states due to escalating kidnappings and violence by militant herdsmen, there are widespread calls for the government to take decisive action to avert the impending catastrophe.

Dr. Pogu Bitrus, President of the Middle Belt Forum (MBF), urges the government to address insecurity promptly to prevent the IRC's grim forecast from materializing. He asserts that Nigeria's hunger crisis is evident to all, emphasizing the government's responsibility to act decisively.

“We know it is a reality because banditry has reached a stage where farmers can’t go to farm, and if farmers can’t go to farm, naturally, there won’t be food to eat.

“Besides, that time is a period when crops like maize are expected to mature, and if there is no maize to complement or supplement whatever that is out there, then there will be trouble, and hunger will definitely set in, unless the government rises up and does something to address the insecurity situation.

“So, their report is in order because it is in line with what is on ground. Unfortunately, it will not be worse in only Sokoto and Zamfara as the report stated, because there are so many other areas where bandits do not allow farmers to go to farm.

“And in such situations, you will agree with me that there will be a devastating hunger unless the government takes a proactive action to address the issue of banditry, so that farmers can return to farm in peace,” he told Naijacrawl.

Also aligning with the IRC’s report is a former lawmaker in the Katsina State House of Assembly, Hon Yusuf Shehu.

He believes that traditionally, the people in Zamfara, Sokoto and Katsina axis experience shortage of food between June and August every year but lamented that the insecurity in those areas would worsen the situation this year.

The ex-lawmaker told Naijacrawl that, “Ordinarily, Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto and other states on that axis receive their first rains around May/June; so it is the beginning of the harvesting season.

“And every year, we, in the north, normally experience food shortage around June/July because most people would have brought out the remaining food in stock at that period to plant for the next season. And there is nothing more for the peasant farmers to do than to go to farm during the period.

“Now, considering the insecurity situation in the country today, where bandits and kidnappers are riding roughshod on the people, coupled with the high cost of living, obviously, there will be acute food shortage.

“The period is the beginning of the harvesting season and the bandits and kidnappers don’t allow people to go to farm; so what do you expect? Added to that is the removal of fuel subsidy which has heightened the cost of living.

“So, for me, I think the report is a wake-up call to the government to take steps in advance so that unavoidable deaths that could result from known calamity could be avoided.

“It is for the government to take the war to the bandits and kidnappers, clear them from our forests and bushes, and allow the farmers to go back to the farm.

“That is the only way to avert the IRC’s prediction, otherwise the percentage of Nigerians that would face severe hunger during the period could even be far more than the predicted 16 percent,” he stated.

A lawyer and public affairs commentator, Nnamani C.I, said there was no hard and fast rule to making food available, apart from creating an enabling environment for farmers to do their farm work without fear of being attacked, kidnapped or even killed.

He stressed that it would be a surprise and one of the greatest miracles of the century if, between June and July, Nigerians don’t experience a biting food crisis.

The lawyer said bandits and kidnappers had taken over the farms and forests, forcing the farmers to stay permanently at home.

“It is when farmers go to farm that they can produce. A situation where bandits, kidnappers, herdsmen and Boko Haram Islamist insurgents have driven farmers away from the farm, without any reaction from any quarter, what do you expect? Do you expect manna to fall from heaven in this 21 century? No, that won’t happen.

“The report by the IRC is just stating the obvious. We know that we are in big trouble. And unless the government takes the report seriously and rises to its responsibility, Nigeria may experience civil unrest of unprecedented proportions, and it will start from the north.

“There is a saying that a hungry man is an angry man; and an angry man is violent, while a violent man is an unreasonable man that is capable of doing anything, should not be disputed by any reasonable human.

“The report has just warned the government of a danger lurking around the corner. And I believe the government will not just fold its arms and allow the prediction to come to reality.

“I expect the government to declare a total war against those enemies of the state, rout them out once and for all and allow the farmers to return to farm in peace.

“That way, what the IRC said in its report may not be as adverse as it would have been, but if the government fails to act, the prediction might just be a child’s play to the kind of hunger that will envelop the country, particularly those on the fringes of Sahel during the period,” he told Naijacrawl.